Allan Stone ng Intelitics sa Prediction Markets: 'Karamihan ng Gap ay Marketing, Hindi Regulation'

By juan365 sports betting · September 13, 2026

Allan Stone ng Intelitics sa Prediction Markets: ‘Karamihan ng Gap ay Marketing, Hindi Regulation’

Sa madaling salita: Ang agwat sa pagitan ng prediction markets at tradisyonal na sportsbooks ay 2/3 dahil sa mas magandang marketing ng mga bagong platform, at 1/3 lang dahil sa regulatory advantage. Patunay ito nang talunin ng 15 tao mula Kalshi ang mga sportsbook na may 100 beses na mas maraming empleyado sa World Cup—nakakuha sila ng halos 6 milyong app downloads at mas mataas pa ang brand recall kaysa sa network na nag-air ng laro.

Ano ba talaga ang natutunan natin mula sa World Cup run ng Kalshi?

“Labinlimang tao ang tumalo sa mga kumpanyang may 100 beses na mas maraming tao,” sabi ni Allan Stone, CEO ng Intelitics. Isipin mo ‘yun—isang maliit na team lang, pero mas mahusay pa sa mga sportsbook giant.

Ano ang mga nangyari?

Metric	Kalshi	Typical Sportsbook
Trading volume vs. handle	Mas mataas pa sa karamihan ng sportsbooks	Normal na handle lang
App downloads	Halos 6 million	Mas mababa
Brand recall	Nanguna pa sa network na nag-air ng World Cup	Mas mababa
Female user growth	Doble ang bilis kumpara sa male users	Stuck sa low 20s%
Female user percentage	Almost 30% by late June	Low 20s% (ilang taon na)

Ang pattern ng usage: Karaniwang sportsbook—mataas sa simula ng tournament, tapos mabilis bumaba. Pero si Kalshi—patuloy ang pag-angat hanggang knockout rounds.

Pero hindi lahat permanent. Sabi ni Stone: “Both Kalshi at Polymarket, biglang bumaba ang sports activity nang matapos ang World Cup tournament. Ibig sabihin, marami sa mga ‘yan ay tourist traffic lang—chasing a moment.”

Ang tanong na dapat itanong ng bawat operator: “Kung maging regular users man lang ng Kalshi ang isang third ng mga bagong traders na ‘yan—para sa elections, weather, o kahit ano pang susunod—may sagot ba ang industriya? Sa tingin ko, wala pa.”

Paano naaapektuhan ng prediction markets ang acquisition costs ng sportsbooks?

Dati, sportsbooks lang ang nagbi-bid para sa same users sa same channels. Ngayon, may bagong kalaban—prediction markets.

Sabi mismo ng CEO ng BetMGM sa earnings season: “Prediction markets are pulling marketing dollars out of the same channels sportsbooks live in, pushing acquisition costs higher and stretching out payback on new cohorts.” Hindi hula ‘yan—sinabi ng public company sa investors kung bakit nagbago ang guidance nila.

Ang totoong numbers:

DraftKings at FanDuel — projected na mawawalan ng more than half a billion dollars combined sa EBITDA ngayong taon dahil sa pagbuo at marketing ng sarili nilang prediction products.
PENN’s CEO — tinawag na “arms race” ang darating bago ang football season, at ginamit ang salitang “irrational.”

Ang problema: “Kung hindi ka isa sa tatlong kumpanyang direktang lumalaban, tataas pa rin ang CPMs mo. Nagbi-bid ka sa same auctions kasama ang multiple public companies at isang well-funded prediction market na mas mataas pa ang valuation kaysa kay DraftKings—at walang isa sa kanila ang nag-o-optimize para sa payback window mo.”

Bottom line para sa 2026 budget: “Kung ginawa mo ang budget mo assuming na same lang ang competitive set noong nakaraang taon, mali na ‘yan.”

Bakit nasisira ang measurement model ng operators kapag prediction market trader na ang user?

Ang lumang modelo: Deposit → place a few wagers around Sunday’s slate → maybe a parlay → wait for the next slate. LTV cohorts, predicted-value windows, CRM triggers—lahat assume na ganyan ang shape ng user.

Ang bagong trader: Hindi ganyan kumilos. “They check a probability the way you’d check a stock price—all day, across a news cycle instead of a game clock. Their money might sit as working capital across a dozen small positions instead of one stake on one outcome.”

Saan nasisira ang measurement?

Component	Lumang Model (Sports Bettor)	Bagong Model (Prediction Trader)
Session frequency	Around game time	All day, any time
Bet size	Consistent per wager	Variable, small positions
Sport selection	Specific sport	Events, elections, weather
CRM bucket	“Sports bettor” o “Casino player”	Walang clean bucket
Attribution	Madali i-trace	Nasira agad

Ang sakit ng ulo: “Attribution breaks first. Your CRM was built to say this person is a sports bettor or a casino player. It has no clean bucket for someone who found you through a market on the World Cup and checks in daily without ever placing what your system recognises as a wager.”

Konklusyon ni Stone: “If your data model can’t describe the behaviour, it can’t value it. Right now, most operators are trying to fit a new animal into an old cage.”

Meron na ba tayong reliable 12-month LTV para sa prediction market users?

Maikling sagot: Wala pa.

“Nobody has it. Anyone telling you different is guessing with confidence, which is worse than just guessing.”

Bakit wala pa?

World Cup lang ang reference point — Both Kalshi at Polymarket, biglang bumaba ang sports activity nang matapos ang tournament. “Chasing a moment isn’t the same as building a customer base.”
‘Believes’ vs. ‘Measured’ — Sabi ni Jason Robins ng DraftKings: “believes it can eventually get predictions customers to the same lifetime value as sportsbook customers.” Pansinin ang salitang “believes”—projection ‘yan, hindi measured cohort.
Platinum tier ni Kalshi — “You don’t build a white-glove retention program for users you’ve already sized up. You build it because you’re trying to find out who your whales actually are.”

Ang honest approach para sa 2027 budgeting: “Treat any LTV figure you hear from this category as a hypothesis, not a benchmark, until someone’s watched a cohort for a full year without a tentpole event propping it up.”

Paano nagre-react ang affiliates sa pag-usbong ng prediction markets?

Affiliates pumupunta kung saan mabilis ang pera. Ngayon, prediction markets ang mainit.

Paano nagwo-work ang affiliate programs ngayon:

Platform	Model	Details
Kalshi	Promo codes	Yung nag-own ng code, bayad kapag may nag-fund ng account at nag-trade
Polymarket	Wallet activity	On-chain, automatic ang rewards

Ang problema: “Neither one looks like a mature sportsbook rate card yet. It’s CPA, revshare, and hybrid deals getting stitched together in real time, because nobody running these programs has years of cohort data to price it properly.”

Epekto sa sportsbook CPAs: “Affiliates have finite inventory—their best placements, their trusted lists, their highest-intent audiences. If a prediction market will pay for that placement today with less friction and a newer, more exciting story for their audience, sportsbooks have to pay more to keep the shelf space they used to get by default.”

Konklusyon: “You’re not losing affiliates. You’re bidding against a category that doesn’t need the deal to make sense yet.”

Maaari bang gamitin sa Europe ang US marketing playbook?

Bahagyang oo, pero ang mahalagang bahagi—hindi.

Ang regulatory landscape sa Europe:

9 regulators (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland) — coordinated against unlicensed prediction platforms
UK Gambling Commission — sinabi na ang Kalshi o Polymarket ay under “betting intermediary” definition (same category as Betfair, regulated since ~2000)

Anong nagbabago? “If that becomes the framework, prediction markets in Europe stop being a grey-zone growth story and become a licensed product competing on the same terms as everyone else.”

Ang US playbook ngayon: “Move fast, stay culturally relevant, let the regulatory question stay open while you scale.” Ang ambiguity mismo ang growth engine.

Sa Europe, iba: “You’re not out-hustling anyone into your app anymore. You’re fighting the same onboarding, payments, and KYC battle regulated operators have always fought.”

Ano ang natransfer? “The instinct to move fast and operate like a newsroom—that part travels anywhere. The advantage of nobody being quite sure what you are yet—that one stays home.”

Regulatory gap o marketing gap—alin ba talaga ang mas malaki?

“Both are real, and operators need to stop hiding behind the first one to avoid admitting the second.”

Ang regulatory gap (legitimate):

Prediction markets: under federal CFTC oversight
Sportsbooks: state by state fight for licenses
16 states na ang nag-action against sports-related event contracts last year
AGA says lost state and tribal revenue = $1 billion

Pero ang totoo…

“Most of the gap is marketing, not regulation.”

Patunay:

15 tao out-executed ang best-funded, most experienced brands over 6 weeks
Out-downloaded sila
Out-recalled ang network na nag-air ng games
Pulled in female audience na ilang taon nang sinusubukan ng sportsbooks

“Nothing about the CFTC made that happen. Better marketing did.”

Ang breakdown ni Stone:

1/3 regulatory gap
2/3 self-inflicted (marketing gap)

Ang malinaw: “Fix the regulatory gap, and there’s still a marketing problem sitting underneath it.”

Ano ang isang bagay na dapat baguhin ng marketing teams bago ang 2027 budget?

“Stop building the budget like prediction markets are a footnote and sportsbooks are the whole competitive set.”

Bakit ito ang pinakamahalaga? “They’re not anymore, and that assumption is the most expensive one a marketing team can carry into 2027.”

Ang solusyon: “Build one LTV-based budget instead of a media-buy budget that assumes last year’s competitive set.”

Ang konkretong advice:

Treat prediction markets as main competitors
Don’t assume same CPMs as last year
Factor in na may bagong bidder sa bawat auction
I-set ang LTV assumptions as hypotheses, not benchmarks

Bottom Line: Ang Aral sa Industriya

Ang kwento ng Kalshi at prediction markets ay hindi tungkol sa regulation—ito ay tungkol sa better marketing, better product, at better understanding ng audience.

Kung ang sportsbooks ay magpapatuloy na mag-focus lang sa regulatory gap at hindi aaminin ang marketing problem nila, magigising na lang sila na ang dating competitive set ay hindi na ang totoong kalaban.

Ang tanong para sa bawat operator: Ready ka na ba para sa 2027, o umaasa ka pa rin na babalik ang dati?