What Will it Take for the NFL to Embrace Prediction Markets?
What Will it Take for the NFL to Embrace Prediction Markets?
Para maging opisyal na partner ng NFL ang mga prediction markets, kailangan muna nilang sundin ang mahigpit na kondisyon ng liga—kasama na ang 21+ age limit, mahigpit na responsible gambling rules, at mga hakbang laban sa insider trading. Sa ngayon, wala pang opisyal na tie-up, kaya gumagamit ang mga brand ng “guerilla marketing” para maabot ang mga fans ng NFL.
Ano Ba ang Hinihingi ng NFL Bago Sila Makipag-partner sa Prediction Markets?
The NFL has laid out a clear set of demands that exchanges must meet before any official prediction market can exist for the league. For now, brands are taking a guerrilla approach to reach the sport’s massive fanbase. Prediction markets are aggressively pushing to acquire customers this football season, but you won’t see any official NFL affiliation. Walang ads sa mga stadium, walang team sponsorship deals, at bawal mag-endorso ang mga players.
Ano ang “Responsible Trading Framework” na Inilabas ng Novig?
Novig, isang bagong player sa prediction market space, ay naglabas ng “Responsible Trading Framework” noong nakaraang buwan. Ayon sa founder nilang si Jacob Fortinsky, independent ito sa impluwensya ng NFL— pero halatang sinasagot nito ang mga alalahanin ng liga.
Ang mga bagong standards na ito ay kinabibilangan ng:
- Minimum age na 21
- Self-control tools para sa mga customer
- Responsible marketing guidelines
- Monitoring ng risky behavior
- Consumer protections na naka-embed sa contracts
Interesting nga ito dahil noong July, nagpadala ang NFL ng letter sa CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) na naglalaman ng mga concerns nila tungkol sa manipulation at insider trading. Kasama rin sa priorities nila ang advertising restrictions, right to object sa certain contracts, at ang 21-year-old minimum.
Bakit Hindi Pa Rin Pumapayag ang NFL?
Hangga’t hindi natutugunan ng mga operators ang demands ng NFL, mukhang malayo pa ang opisyal na partnership. Ang proteksyon ng integridad ng sport—na siyang theme ng July letter ng liga sa CFTC—ang sentro ng mga talakayan, ayon kay Eric Foote, founder at CEO ng VIG Partners.
“There are four or five categories that the NFL is really gonna push the envelope on,” sabi ni Foote, na may access sa negotiations ng liga sa prediction markets. “Until they get clear direction on most of those, I still see them sitting out through the course of this NFL season or a portion of it.”
Bakit Gusto ng NFL ang 21+ Age Standard?
Isa sa mga pangunahing demands ng NFL ay ang minimum age na 21, na naka-align sa national sports betting standard. Sa tingin ni Foote, ito rin ang dahilan kaya ginawang 21+ ng Novig ang platform nila.
Pero nilinaw ni Fortinsky: “Our Responsible Trading framework wasn’t developed in response to the NFL. We had been working on these standards before the NFL announced its guidelines. The same is true of our 21+ age standard. Novig has always been a 21+ platform, well before we became a federally regulated exchange.”
Dagdag pa niya: “We respect and value the views of the NFL and other leagues on responsible participation, but ultimately these were decisions we made based on how we want to run our business and the standard we want to set for the industry. Our hope is that we can lead by example and create what we refer to as a race to the top.”
Sumasang-ayon Ba ang Ibang Prediction Markets sa 21+ Rule?
Habang pinupuri ng industriya ang Responsible Gaming blueprint ng Novig—at maaaring maging hakbang ito para tanggapin ng NFL—may mga exchange na hindi sang-ayon sa age requirement.
“I think it’s gonna be really hard for prediction markets to go backwards on 18 to 21,” komento ni Foote.
Si Dean Sisun, co-founder at CEO ng ProphetX, isa pang sports-focused prediction market, ay may kontrobersyal na pananaw:
“I like a lot of what they did. I don’t know if I’m on board with the age requirement, to be honest, and that might sound bad at first, but these are fundamentally different instruments than gambling. So why should they succumb to the same rules that gambling has? I’ve also always believed that you can serve in the army at 18, but you can’t place a sports bet until you’re 21? You can trade options at 18, but you can’t trade in prediction markets until you’re 21? To me, that just fundamentally doesn’t make any sense, but I think a lot of what they’re doing is very good.”
Paghahambing ng mga Paninindigan sa Age Requirement
| Kumpanya | Positon sa 21+ Age Limit | Dahilan |
|---|---|---|
| Novig | SANG-AYON (21+ na mula pa noon) | Gustong mag-set ng industry standard at “race to the top” |
| ProphetX | HINDI SANG-AYON | Iba ang prediction markets sa pagsusugal; dapat 18+ tulad ng trading |
| NFL | NANININDIGAN SA 21+ | Naka-align sa national sports betting standard |
Wala Pang Opisyal na Sponsorship—Pero May Paraan Pa Rin para Maabot ang Fans
Ang MLB (sa pamamagitan ng Polymarket at MOU with CFTC), NHL (Kalshi at Polymarket), at MLS (Polymarket) ay may opisyal na relasyon sa prediction markets. May posibilidad pang magkaroon ng Kalshi-NBA deal soon, ayon kay CEO Tarek Mansour.
Pero hindi naman kailangan ng prediction markets ng opisyal na marketing rights para maabot ang NFL fans—hahanap sila ng paraan. Si Foote, na dating Chief Strategy Officer sa PointsBet noong may formal relationship pa ito sa NFL, ay naniniwala sa halaga ng league at team partnerships. Pero aminado siya na maraming paraan para i-kwento ang produkto sa target audience—at pwede itong gawin nang mas mura.
Magkano Ba ang Binabayaran ng Mga Opisyal na Sportsbooks sa NFL?
Ang FanDuel, DraftKings, at Fanatics ay sama-samang nagbabayad sa NFL sa halagang nasa ten figures. Kung walang official rights, sabi ni Foote: “It’s more challenging, but it’s more cost effective because they’re not paying the big fee to the NFL and they’re untying up those dollars to be able to invest them back in.”
Saan Nakikita ang mga Ads ng Prediction Markets?
Kitang-kita ang pagpasok ng prediction markets sa U.S.:
- May mga reps na naka-Kalshi apparel na pumupunta sa mga games
- Puno ang social media feeds ng NFL team logos at players in uniform—may permission o wala
- May mga ads sa apps tulad ng The Weather Channel at TeamReach (platform para sa rec at youth sports)
“They do it in very unconventional means,” obserba ni Foote. “There are ways to go about marketing without having to go through [the NFL’s] official channels or use their official shield or team marks or Super Bowl marks or things that Fanatics gets in their deal. I’m seeing it on a daily basis where I live [in Hawaii], and I’m sure many others are seeing it on a regular basis, too.”
Ang tanong ngayon: hanggang kailan kaya magtitiis ang NFL bago nila yakapin ang mga prediction markets? Sa bilis ng paglago ng industriya, baka hindi na sila magtagal sa sideline.
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